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Рубль переоценен, курс рубля завышен, и это мешает экономике бурно развиваться, говорят сторонники проведения девальвации рубля через игры с курсом. Сколько стоит рубль, волнует всех его обладателей. Главный экономист Международного валютного фонда (МВФ) Кеннет Рогофф, приехавший в пятницу в Москву, настоятельно рекомендует Центробанку отпустить рубль в свободное плавание и узнать, сколько стоит национальная валюта рубль на самом деле.



Кеннет Рогофф сказал "Финансовым Известиям", что для оптимального развития (без риска скатиться в зону дефляции) российской экономике нужна инфляция "не ниже 4-5% годовых". Перспектива долгосрочная, но, если отпустить рубль в свободное плавание, вполне достижимая, полагает главный экономист МВФ.



Выступая на семинаре в ЦБ, Рогофф рекомендовал монетарным властям "разрешить обменному курсу рубля свободнее колебаться в соответствии с колебаниями цен на товары экспорта". По его словам, из-за проводимых ЦБ интервенций сейчас рынок не чувствует этих колебаний курса рубля, и это неправильно.



Первый зампред ЦБ Олег Вьюгин согласен, что введение более плавающего курса рубля в перспективе правильно, однако "пока Россия к нему не готова". Вьюгин признает, что номинальный курс рубля завышен, и экспортеры получают "слишком большую курсовую премию из-за неравновесности рыночного курса рубля и курса ЦБ".



Считается, что, если отпустить рубль при высоких ценах на нефть, его курс может скатиться до 15-10 руб. за доллар.



"Если решиться на этот шаг, окажется, что все совсем не так ужасно", - говорит Кеннет Рогофф. Правда, при этом он отмечает, что отпустить рубль нельзя без проведения структурных реформ в экономике и адекватной бюджетной политики.



ЦБ сейчас редко прибегает к валютным интервенциям - он лишь выставляет свои котировки, указывая участникам рынка ориентир, с которым не надо спорить. Против такого "бесконтактного регулирования" курса рубля в МВФ и возражают. Но аналитики говорят, что ЦБ сейчас все делает правильно. "Какую бы политику ЦБ ни проводил, реальный эффективный курс рубля в долгосрочной перспективе не менялся бы, - считает главный экономист инвестиционной компании "Тройка-Диалог" Евгений Гавриленков. - Сейчас ведь ЦБ только сглаживает резкие кратковременные колебания курса".



finiz.ru/cfin/tmpl-art/id_art-597386



курс рубля - рубль переоценен,курс рубля завышен,МВФ - отпустить курс рубля, Сколько стоит рубль к доллару? 15-10 рублей
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